Progress towards Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on maternal and child mortality: an updated systematic analysis
Lozano R, Wang H, Foreman KJ, Rajaratnam JK, Naghavi M, Marcus JR, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Lofgren KT, Phillips D, Atkinson C, Lopez AD, Murray CJ. Lancet. 2011 Sep 24;378(9797):1139-65.
With 4 years until 2015, it is essential to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Although estimates of maternal and child mortality were published in 2010, an update of estimates is timely in view of additional data sources that have become available and new methods developed. The aim of Lozano and colleagues was to update previous estimates of maternal and child mortality using better data and more robust methods to provide the best available evidence for tracking progress on MDGs 4 and 5. They update the analyses of the progress towards MDGs 4 and 5 from 2010 with additional surveys, censuses, vital registration, and verbal autopsy data. For children, they estimate early neonatal (0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (ages 1-4 years), and under-5 mortality. They use an improved model for estimating mortality by age under 5 years. For maternal mortality, their updated analysis includes greater than 1000 additional site-years of data. They tested a large set of alternative models for maternal mortality; they used an ensemble model based on the models with the best out-of-sample predictive validity to generate new estimates from 1990 to 2011. Under-5 deaths have continued to decline, reaching 7.2 million in 2011 of which 2.2 million were early neonatal, 0.7 million late neonatal, 2.1 million postneonatal, and 2.2 million during childhood (ages 1-4 years). Comparing rates of decline from 1990 to 2000 with 2000 to 2011 shows that 106 countries have accelerated declines in the child mortality rate in the past decade. Maternal mortality has also continued to decline from 409,100 (uncertainty interval 382,900-437,900) in 1990 to 273,500 (256,300-291,700) deaths in 2011. They estimate that 56,100 maternal deaths in 2011 were HIV-related deaths during pregnancy. Based on recent trends in developing countries, 31 countries will achieve MDG 4, 13 countries MDG 5, and nine countries will achieve both. Even though progress on reducing maternal and child mortality in most countries is accelerating, most developing countries will take many years past 2015 to achieve the targets of the MDGs 4 and 5. Similarly, although there continues to be progress on maternal mortality the pace is slow, without any overall evidence of acceleration. Immediate concerted action is needed for a large number of countries to achieve MDG 4 and MDG 5.
For abstract access click here
Editor’s note: This article provides an update on the maternal mortality estimates provided by Hogan et al in HIV This Week Issue #81, along with progress on under-5 mortality. Although UNFPA has said ‘make each and every person count’, many countries have weak vital registration systems and health indicator tracking capacity. The ambitious targets of Millennium Development Goal 4 (reduce the under-5 mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015) and Goal 5 (reduce the maternal-mortality ratio by three-quarters from 1990 and 2015) require measurement so that lessons can be learned from countries that are on track, resources can be mobilised, and adjustments can be made by countries that are lagging behind to spur the speed of their progress. The high-level Commission on Information and Accountability for Women’s and Children’s Health recommended that by 2015 ‘all countries have taken significant steps to establish a system for registration of births, deaths, and causes of death, and have well-functioning health information systems that combine data from facilities, administration services, and surveys’. In the interim, we have to rely on modelling-derived estimates that have varying degrees of uncertainty, depending on the strength of the available data to be entered into the models, among other factors. As well, there may be differences in what to track: HIV-associated maternal deaths or HIV-related maternal deaths. The Global Plan aims to achieve a 50% reduction in the number of HIV-associated deaths during pregnancy, delivery, and the puerperium by 2015. The UNAIDS Terminology Guidelines www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/document/2011/20111025_UNAIDS_Terminology_Guidelines_En.pdf define HIV-associated deaths as deaths to women with HIV infection during pregnancy, delivery, or the puerperium, including direct maternal deaths to women who are HIV-positive, indirect maternal deaths aggravated by HIV, and HIV-related deaths to women during pregnancy, delivery, or puerperium. These authors define direct and indirect obstetric deaths as all maternal deaths minus the HIV-related deaths during pregnancy so the progress reported here may or may not mirror progress in the HIV-associated maternal mortality that the Global Plan Is tracking.
Triple antiretroviral compared with zidovudine and single-dose nevirapine prophylaxis during pregnancy and breastfeeding for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 (Kesho Bora study): a randomised controlled trial