Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy
Stover J, Korenromp EL, Blakley M, Komatsu R, Viisainen K, Bollinger L, Atun R. PLoS One. 2011;6(6):e21048.
By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy in 104 low- and middle-income countries. Stover and colleagues estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. Survival on first-line and second-line antiretroviral therapy regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programmes. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported antiretroviral procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilisation, and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million patients on antiretroviral therapy in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining antiretroviral therapy falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5% decline in first-line ARV prices and $150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or $200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by antiretroviral therapy correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020. Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens.
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Editor’s note: This analysis of the cost and impact of continuing treatment for the 3.5 million of people who are co-supported by the Global Fund, compared to stopping it, provides food for thought. For the 6.6 million people on antiretroviral therapy now, retention on treatment is excellent after the first year, based on data from 38 national AIDS programmes in 2008: 80% not dying or lost to follow-up at 1 year, 75% at 2 years, 74% at 3 years, and 73% at 4 years. If treatment were to be stopped now for those receiving it, 18% would die in the first year, 46% after two years, 64% after three years, 76% after 4 years, 84% after 5 years, and 97% after 6 years. Median survival after treatment cessation would be 2 to 3 years. If the Global Fund did not support any new people to start antiretroviral therapy, the costs to maintain those already on treatment through to 2020 would decline. Costs increase as more people are moved off d4T first-line regimens or start costly second-line regimens (24% will likely be on second-line by 2020), however deaths result in 10% reduced costs overall. Antiretroviral drugs constitute 42% of first-line regimen and 81% of second-line regimen costs, underscoring the importance of further price reductions. Routine viral load testing, CD4 cunts, and clinical monitoring for timely detection of and responses to adherence difficulties, will prevent unnecessary switching to second-line regimens. The most striking finding is the number of life-years saved each year¾it rises to 2.3 million by 2017 when virtually everyone treated today would have died in the absence of treatment. Setting aside moral, ethical, and treatment for prevention arguments, continued and increased investment in antiretroviral treatment makes economic sense, not only for those already on treatment but also for those eligible and waiting.
This study takes stock of the exponential growth in the number of new civil-society organisations working in the HIV field in East and Southern Africa during the period 1996-2004. Kelly and Birdsall researched this development through a survey of 439 civil-society organisations in six countries and case studies focused on the evolution of community responses to HIV in specific communities in eight countries. The authors describe the types of civil-society organisations that emerged, their relationships with governments and donors, and their activities, organisational characteristics, and funding requirements. The data presented show that the vision of social mobilisation of HIV responses through community-level organisations has faced strong external challenges. Evidence from survey data, national HIV spending assessments, and case studies shows that in some respects the changing international aid environment undermines the prospects for development of the civil-society sector's contributions in HIV responses. Of particular interest is to understand how the "Three Ones" and the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness have reshaped international funding for HIV responses. There has been relatively little attention paid to the impact of the new management and funding modalities - including national performance frameworks, general budget support, joint funding arrangements, and basket funds - on civil-society agencies at the forefront of community HIV responses. Evidence is presented to show that in important respects the new modalities limit the unique contribution that civil-society organisations can make to national HIV responses. It is also shown that the drive to rapidly intensify the scale of HIV responses has involved using community organisations as service providers for externally formulated programmes. The authors discuss this as a strong threat to the development of sustainable civil-society economies as well as to civil-society organisations' diversity and responsiveness. The ways in which civil-society organisations are responding to these challenges are discussed, pointing to possibilities for a new phase of development of the civil-society sector.