Epidemiological impact of tenofovir gel on the HIV epidemic in South Africa
Williams BG, Abdool Karim SS, Karim QA, Gouws E. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2011 Jun 7. [Epub ahead of print]
Tenofovir gel, an antiretroviral-based vaginal microbicide, reduced HIV acquisition by 39% in women in a recent randomised controlled clinical trial in South Africa. To inform policy, Williams and colleagues used a dynamical model of HIV transmission, calibrated to the epidemic in South Africa, to determine the population-level impact of this microbicide on HIV incidence, prevalence, and deaths and to evaluate its cost-effectiveness. If women use tenofovir-gel in 80% or more of sexual encounters (high coverage), it could avert 2.33 (0.12 to 4.63) million new infections and save 1.30 (0.07 to 2.42) million lives and if used in 25% of sexual encounters (low coverage), it could avert 0.50 (0.04 to 0.77) million new infections and save 0.29 (0.02 to 0.44) million deaths, over the next 20 years. At US$0.50 per application, the cost per infection averted at low coverage is US$2,392 (US$562 to US$4,222) and the cost per disability-adjusted life year saved is US$104 (US$27 to US$181); at high coverage the costs are about 30% less. Over twenty years the use of tenofovir gel in South Africa could avert up to 2 million new infections and 1 million AIDS deaths. Even with low rates of gel use it is highly cost-effective and compares favourably with other control methods. This female controlled prevention method could have a significant impact on the epidemic of HIV in South Africa. Programmes should aim to achieve gel use in more than 25% of sexual encounters to significantly alter the course of the epidemic.
For abstract access click here
Editor’s note: As this model shows, widespread use of 1% tenofovir vaginal gel by South African women before and after each sex act would have important population-level impacts, helping bring down HIV incidence more rapidly. Although several of the model’s assumptions can be questioned, e.g. roll-out of product is not likely to start in 2012 and a cost of 60 cents US per sexual encounter or 30 cents per dose remains to be negotiated, the overall results hold—significant numbers of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths can be averted in South Africa through tenofovir gel use under cost-effective conditions. Concerted efforts are underway to confirm the CAPRISA 004 findings through the FACTS 001 trial in South Africa that is testing the same dosing schedule (once in the 12 hours before sex and once in the 12 hours after sex). Confirmatory evidence will facilitate product development, technology transfer, licensing, and marketing of tenofovir gel to women at risk of HIV exposure. The VOICE trial underway in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe will answer the question of whether daily dosing with tenofovir gel works as well, less well, or better than use before and after sex. Watch this space!