HIV This Week

Amirfar S, Hollenberg JP, Karim SS. Modeling the Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine on HIV Infection and Death Among Women and Infants in South Africa. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2006 Aug 31; [Epub ahead of print]

Amirfar assessed the potential impact over 10 years of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a cohort of 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa in terms of HIV infections and deaths prevented in mothers and infants. They constructed a computer simulation using a population of all 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa followed for 10 years. A partially effective vaccine was introduced into this population, with the ability to reduce the HIV incidence rates of the adolescents and vertical transmission to their infants through birth and breast-feeding. At the end of this 10 year period, the number of HIV infections and death prevented in adolescents and infants was analyzed. Using a 5% HIV incidence rate, a 50% effective vaccine decreases the number of HIV cases among adolescents by 57,653 (28.7%) and the number of cases among infants by 13,765 (28.9%) over 10 years. In addition, assuming a vaccine cost of $20 per dose, the vaccination programme can save approximately $120 million for the South African government over 10 years. The authors conclude that a partially effective HIV vaccine could play an important role in HIV prevention in adolescents and infants in South Africa irrespective of other public policy implementations.

Editors’ note: Thousands of people worldwide are working toward an HIV vaccine. Let’s plan on seeing these types of effects in evidence in our lifetimes.